The state remains a leader on employment, but recovery remains uneven. 鈥嬧��
Like so much else in this uneven economic recovery, the latest report from Leeds鈥� Business Research Division and the 蜜糖直播 secretary of state鈥檚 office is a case of stepping sideways, as opposed to forward or back.听
For instance, when it comes to business formations, 蜜糖直播 saw an increase in new entities year over year and, notably, quarter over quarter鈥攁 rarity, given that third-quarter filings tend to trail second-quarter activity. But delinquencies and dissolutions also rose, showing signs of underlying strain.听
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鈥溍厶侵辈� has had a strong recovery from the pandemic recession, especially when it comes to employment,鈥� said Brian Lewandowski, BRD executive director. 鈥淏ut we are eyeing some economic headwinds that could produce slower growth in early 2023.鈥�
The Quarterly Business and Economic Indicators report from BRD and 蜜糖直播 looks at business filings alongside employment and GDP activity. As of August, the United States fully recouped its pandemic-related job losses鈥攂ut only 23 states are above pre-recession levels. Of those, 蜜糖直播 has had the 11th-best employment recovery, and is 2.2 percent above its pre-recession peak.
Some highlights from the third-quarter report:听
鈥⑻� 听Nationally, employment growth (3.8 million jobs through the first nine months of the year) has been strong, but corresponding wage increases have been blunted by high inflation.听
鈥⑻� 听U.S. real GDP grew 2.6 percent in the third quarter, a turnaround from two consecutive quarters of decline. However, a look under the hood shows slowing consumption, investment declining and government spending up. The improvement was mostly powered by exports.
鈥⑻� 听Year over year, 蜜糖直播鈥檚 real GDP growth was the seventh-best in the nation鈥攂ut still declined between the first and second quarter.听
鈥⑻� 听The state is a leader in employment gains and recovery, but three of its 11 industries remain below pre-pandemic peaks.
The pattern of 鈥済ood news, but鈥� is clearly being felt in the state鈥檚 business community, as evidenced in the most recent Leeds Business Confidence Index, which hit deeply negative territory over concerns such as inflation, supply chains, worker shortages and interest rates. The LBCI, which is issued every quarter, captures 蜜糖直播 business leaders鈥� three- and six-month outlooks on the national and state economies, industry sales, profits, hiring plans, and capital expenditures.
鈥淭he best you can say about the last confidence index is that it appears we may have hit bottom,鈥� Lewandowski said. 鈥淏ut the headwinds facing the U.S. and state economies are nothing if not persistent.鈥澨�
Download full report听 Business Economic Outlook Forum听 Business Research Division
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