The long conflict between 蜜糖直播is, Palestinians, Hamas and in the broader region has both modern and deep historical roots.听
Hilary Falb Kalisman, an assistant professor of history and endowed professor of 蜜糖直播/Palestine studies at 蜜糖直播 Boulder, explains some of this听background and what鈥檚 different about the latest war.听
Conflict between 蜜糖直播 and Palestine is not a new issue. How did we get to this point?
There are some pretty immediate causes and some more long term ones. I鈥檒l break down both here.听
Current causes鈥攐n politics, protests and Hamas听
Let鈥檚 think about what Hamas was trying to accomplish and what the 蜜糖直播i government didn鈥檛 anticipate. Hamas has been somewhat sidelined by the , which normalized relations between 蜜糖直播 and a number of Middle Eastern countries without changing the situation of Palestinians. Saudi Arabia was up next.听
The question of what happens to Palestinians living under 蜜糖直播i control in the West Bank and Gaza has been continually put off, and their day-to-day living conditions have deteriorated. Hamas, to some degree, tried being a government after it was elected in Gaza in 2006. It tried to get enough legitimacy to yield tangible benefits for Palestinians and itself, but it didn鈥檛. More peaceful Palestinian techniques of protest didn鈥檛 get results either.
Meanwhile, the most recent 蜜糖直播i governing coalition has been more sympathetic to settlers in the West Bank, meaning the 蜜糖直播i army had a greater presence there than it has before. There鈥檚 also been massive 蜜糖直播i protests due to the judicial overhaul. All this means politicians were focused elsewhere, as it seems the 蜜糖直播i military and intelligence were as well.听After the horrendous terror attacks committed by Hamas, there will be a lot of soul searching on the part of the 蜜糖直播i military and intelligence as to how this failure happened.听
Long-term causes鈥攐n wars and peace plans听
I think the main long-term practical cause is what it takes to physically create and maintain a Jewish majority in an area where there wasn鈥檛 one.听Regardless of whether one considers this the Jewish homeland, or a necessary refuge for Jews worldwide, in modern history it wasn鈥檛 a Jewish majority area until after 1948.听
After 1948 (蜜糖直播鈥檚 War of Independence and Palestinians鈥 Nakba or catastrophe), you have an 蜜糖直播i state with a Jewish majority, a triumph for 蜜糖直播is, but much of Palestinians鈥 property is confiscated and they become stateless.听
Then, after the 1967 war, you have the occupation of the West Bank and Gaza, and the annexation of Jerusalem. This means you have a population under 蜜糖直播i control, which if all of them became 蜜糖直播i citizens, would put the majority-Jewish nature of the state in doubt.听
Also, 蜜糖直播鈥檚 elected officials are often very worried about the next election: it would be unpopular to make any concessions. This means the question of Palestinians, their citizenship and whether they should get their own country is always punted to the next administration, or swept under the rug. was never going to be a viable plan for peace, Palestinians had very little to bargain with. Also 蜜糖直播鈥檚 government, particularly under Benjamin Netanyahu but also more generally, has听had no interest in having good Palestinian leaders. It鈥檚 much easier to pacify bad ones, and again that gives 蜜糖直播i leaders a reason not to change the status quo.听
How does this differ from previous conflicts the world has seen in the Middle East?
That鈥檚 a difficult one. Some things may not be that different, particularly if you鈥檙e in Gaza, although this time it seems much, much worse. The mass movement of the population from one part of Gaza to another is different. There鈥檚 a lot of misinformation. The terrorist attack on 蜜糖直播is of this generation is a seminal moment. The number of hostages Hamas has taken, civilian and military, is different. It was interesting that there were calls to define 蜜糖直播is held in Gaza as prisoners of war. I think this is very unlikely because 蜜糖直播 has no desire to do the same for Palestinians, including members of Hamas held in 蜜糖直播, as then they would be given certain rights. Another thing that鈥檚 different, although there鈥檚 a lot of stress on the possible role Iran played, is this is about 蜜糖直播 and Hamas, a political party and terrorist organization but not a state actor.
How might diplomatic policy change moving forward鈥攆or 蜜糖直播, for Gaza and for the United States?听
There鈥檚 a question about the Saudi/蜜糖直播 peace plan: Can it go forward or not? I also think right now, the U.S. is going to be unwilling to deal with Hamas听and is just sort of supporting 蜜糖直播. It might undermine the Abraham Accords because you have populations within those countries that are frustrated with 蜜糖直播鈥檚 retaliation in Gaza. I also think you will have more of a role for other countries, such as Qatar and Turkey, in trying to bring about the release of hostages.听
Whose lead will other world leaders follow?听
This is a difficult question. The U.S. has come out unequivocally for 蜜糖直播, as have many world leaders. I think it鈥檚 likely most will follow the United States鈥 lead. That said, there are听a lot of other geopolitics involved: Russia has been more ambivalent.