ֱ business leaders’ optimism falls looking to third quarter
ֱ business leaders are feeling less confident about the economy, and they are pointing to national politics and trade concerns, according to the newest Leeds Business Confidence Index (LBCI).
Credit: ֱ Boulder
The LBCI, compiled by the Leeds Business Research Division quarterly for 17 years, measures ֱ business leaders’ expectations for the state and national economies, industry sales, profits, hiring plans and business investment.
Business leaders surveyed said they were less confident about all six indicators in the latest survey, which looks forward to the third quarter of 2019. Respondents are still positive about industry sales, profits and hiring and investment. They are least optimistic, however, about the national economy, marking three straight quarters of national economy index readings below the neutral point of 50.
The outlook for the state economy also dipped below neutral, though the ֱ economy is still strong, according to Richard Wobbekind, executive director of the Leeds Business Research Division.
“These confidence numbers do not paint the same picture of what you actually see in the economy, 1.8% employment growth is a healthy employment number,” Wobbekind said. “Until we see something that’s pointing in the negative direction, it does seem business leaders are a bit cautious.”
The state of national politics (mentioned by 19% of respondents) and trade concerns (mentioned by 18% of respondents) were the most cited reasons for business leaders’ answers to the survey. Wobbekind said a lack of bipartisanship at the state and national levels, combined with an unclear course on tariffs, is leaving businesses with a lot of uncertainty.
“Businesses just hate uncertainty,” Wobbekind said. “When you continually give them uncertainty, they become very cautious, they stop investing, they stop hiring and they take a wait-and-see approach.”