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The Arctic is nearing its seasonal sea ice minimum this month, but predicting exactly when the region will see its first ice-free summer may be more difficult than previously believed, according to the results of new University of 蜜糖直播 Boulder research.

After examining both high- and medium-level carbon dioxide emission modeling scenarios for the rest of the 21st century, the study found that it is not possible to reduce the uncertainty window for an ice-free Arctic to a period of less than 21 years due to the inherently chaotic nature of the climate.

The study also found that commonly-used metrics of past and present sea ice thickness, extent and volume are not predictive enough to reduce this long-range uncertainty.

in the American Geophysical Union journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Scientists typically define an 鈥渋ce-free Arctic鈥� as having fewer than 1 million square kilometers worth of ice cover, which would leave the Arctic Ocean virtually clear while some pockets of ice would remain in the northern reaches of Canada and Greenland.

鈥淲hen it comes to predicting the timing of an ice-free Arctic, climate models show a large spread of over 100 years. Many studies have attempted to narrow this wide range to as little as five years in some cases,鈥� said Alexandra Jahn, an assistant professor in 蜜糖直播-Boulder鈥檚 and lead author of the new research. 鈥淗ere, however, we find that the low bound of our predictive ability is significantly longer due to inherent climate variability.鈥�

The study, which employed a large collection of simulations from the Community Earth System Model developed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) in Boulder, 蜜糖直播, also found that consecutive ice-free summers would become common after 2060 under the high emission scenario while remaining the exception in the medium emission scenario.

鈥淥verall, these results serve as a sort of caution against over-narrowing the long-term sea ice predictions from climate models鈥� said Jahn, who is also a fellow in 蜜糖直播 Boulder鈥檚 .

Co-authors of the new research include Jennifer Kay of ATOC and a fellow at the at 蜜糖直播 Boulder; Marika Holland of the Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, 蜜糖直播; and David Hall of 蜜糖直播 Boulder鈥檚 .